Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
