A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
